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1. WO2020203854 - POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION DEVICE, POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD, AND PROGRAM

Publication Number WO/2020/203854
Publication Date 08.10.2020
International Application No. PCT/JP2020/014234
International Filing Date 27.03.2020
IPC
H02S 10/10 2014.01
HELECTRICITY
02GENERATION, CONVERSION, OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
SGENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER BY CONVERSION OF INFRA-RED RADIATION, VISIBLE LIGHT OR ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT, e.g. USING PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES
10PV power plants; Combinations of PV energy systems with other systems for the generation of electric power
10including a supplementary source of electric power, e.g. hybrid diesel-PV energy systems
G06Q 10/04 2012.01
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10Administration; Management
04Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"
G06N 3/04 2006.01
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
3Computer systems based on biological models
02using neural network models
04Architecture, e.g. interconnection topology
G06Q 50/06 2012.01
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
50Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
06Electricity, gas or water supply
Applicants
  • 三菱重工業株式会社 MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. [JP]/[JP]
Inventors
  • 川上 麗子 KAWAKAMI Reiko
  • 若杉 一幸 WAKASUGI Kazuyuki
Agents
  • 松沼 泰史 MATSUNUMA Yasushi
  • 伊藤 英輔 ITO Eisuke
  • 橋本 宏之 HASHIMOTO Hiroyuki
  • 古都 智 FURUICHI Satoshi
  • 鎌田 康一郎 KAMATA Koichiro
Priority Data
2019-06723029.03.2019JP
Publication Language Japanese (JA)
Filing Language Japanese (JA)
Designated States
Title
(EN) POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION DEVICE, POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD, AND PROGRAM
(FR) DISPOSITIF DE PRÉDICTION DE QUANTITÉ DE GÉNÉRATION D'ÉNERGIE, PROCÉDÉ DE PRÉDICTION DE QUANTITÉ DE GÉNÉRATION D'ÉNERGIE, ET PROGRAMME
(JA) 発電量予測装置、発電量予測方法、およびプログラム
Abstract
(EN)
One aspect of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction device comprising: a storage unit that stores a model configured using machine learning involving the use of explanatory variables including at least the weather prediction information of a mesh including a prediction point and a plurality of surrounding meshes, and an objective variable corresponding to the amount of power generated by natural energy; and a prediction unit that inputs, into the model, the weather prediction information of the prediction time of at least the mesh including the prediction point and the plurality of surrounding meshes, and finds a predicted value of the power generation amount at the prediction point as an output from the model.
(FR)
Un aspect de la présente invention concerne un dispositif de prédiction de quantité de génération d'énergie comprenant : une unité de stockage qui stocke un modèle configuré à l'aide d'un apprentissage automatique impliquant l'utilisation de variables explicatives comprenant au moins les informations de prédiction météorologique d'un maillage comprenant un point de prédiction et une pluralité de mailles environnantes, et une variable objective correspondant à la quantité d'énergie générée par l'énergie naturelle; et une unité de prédiction qui entre, dans le modèle, les informations de prédiction météorologique du temps de prédiction au moins du maillage comprenant le point de prédiction et la pluralité de mailles environnantes, et trouve une valeur prédite de la quantité de génération d'énergie au niveau du point de prédiction en tant que sortie du modèle.
(JA)
本発明の一態様は、予測地点を含むメッシュと周囲の複数のメッシュの各天気予測情報を少なくとも含む説明変数と、自然エネルギによる発電量に対応する目的変数とを用いた機械学習によって構築されたモデルを記憶する記憶部と、少なくとも前記予測地点を含むメッシュと前記周囲の複数のメッシュの予測時刻の各天気予測情報を前記モデルに対して入力し、前記モデルからの出力として前記予測地点における発電量の予測値を求める予測部と、を備える発電量予測装置である。
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