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1. (WO2018106879) MUNICIPAL SOLVENCY INDEX
Note: Text based on automatic Optical Character Recognition processes. Please use the PDF version for legal matters

CLAIMS

What is claimed is:

1. A computer implemented method comprising:

creating a municipal solvency (MSX) database, the creating comprising collecting and coding data from public sources about a plurality of municipalities;

generating predictive models based on contents of the MSX database, the predictive models describing drivers of municipal solvency and predictors of material financial events (MFEs) for each of the municipalities;

estimating probabilities of one or more MFEs for each of the municipalities, the estimating based on the predictive models;

creating indices that reflect solvency and a probability of an MFE for at least one of the municipalities; and

outputting the indices.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the data available from public sources include one or more of comprehensive annual financial report (CAFR) data, demographic data, economic data, and bond market data.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein standard reporting classifications and standard legal entities are defined across a plurality of municipalities in the MSX database, thereby allowing CAFRs of different formats and contents to be compared.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the MFEs include one or more of a tax increase, an expenditure cut, a service deterioration, a cash flow shortfall, and a pension shortfall.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the MSX database is updated on a periodic basis, and the generating, estimating and creating are performed in response to the MSX database being updated.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein each index corresponds to a single municipality.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein each index corresponds to a plurality of municipalities.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the MSX database includes data for each municipality that spans a plurality of years.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining financial events to be included as MFEs.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the determining is based on an analysis of the data in the MSX database.

11. A system comprising:

a memory having computer readable instructions; and

one or more a processors for executing the computer readable instructions, the computer readable instructions including:

creating a municipal solvency (MSX) database, the creating comprising collecting and coding data from public sources about a plurality of municipalities;

generating predictive models based on contents of the MSX database, the predictive models describing drivers of municipal solvency and predictors of material financial events (MFEs) for each of the municipalities;

estimating probabilities of one or more MFEs for each of the municipalities, the estimating based on the predictive models;

creating indices that reflect solvency and a probability of an MFE for at least one of the municipalities; and

outputting the indices.

creating a municipal solvency (MSX) database, the creating comprising collecting and coding data from public sources about a plurality of municipalities;

generating predictive models based on contents of the MSX database, the predictive models describing drivers of municipal solvency and predictors of material financial events (MFEs) for each of the municipalities;

estimating probabilities of one or more MFEs for each of the municipalities, the estimating based on the predictive models;

creating indices that reflect solvency and a probability of an MFE for at least one of the municipalities; and

outputting the indices.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the data available from public sources include one or more of comprehensive annual financial report (CAFR) data, demographic data, economic data, and bond market data.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein standard reporting classifications and standard legal entities are defined across a plurality of municipalities in the MSX database, thereby allowing CAFRs of different formats and contents to be compared.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein the MFEs include one or more of a tax increase, an expenditure cut, a service deterioration, a cash flow shortfall, and a pension shortfall.

15. The system of claim 11, wherein the MSX database is updated on a periodic basis, and the generating, estimating and creating are performed in response to the MSX database being updated.

16. The system of claim 11, wherein the MSX database includes data for each municipality that spans a plurality of years.

17. The system of claim 11, wherein the determining is based on an analysis of the data in the MSX database.

18. A computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, the program instructions executable by a processor to cause the processor to perform:

creating a municipal solvency (MSX) database, the creating comprising collecting and coding data from public sources about a plurality of municipalities;

generating predictive models based on contents of the MSX database, the predictive models describing drivers of municipal solvency and predictors of material financial events (MFEs) for each of the municipalities;

estimating probabilities of one or more MFEs for each of the municipalities, the estimating based on the predictive models;

creating indices that reflect solvency and a probability of an MFE for at least one of the municipalities; and

outputting the indices.

19. The computer program product of claim 18, wherein standard reporting classifications and standard legal entities are defined across a plurality of municipalities in the MSX database, thereby allowing CAFRs of different formats and contents to be compared.

20. The computer program product of claim 18, wherein the determining is based on an analysis of the data in the MSX database.