Search International and National Patent Collections
|1. (WO2018082132) SHORT-PERIOD PREDICTION METHOD FOR OUTPUT POWER OF ENERGY SYSTEM|
|Title:||SHORT-PERIOD PREDICTION METHOD FOR OUTPUT POWER OF ENERGY SYSTEM|
A short-period prediction method for output power of an energy system. N pieces of power data X(0)=(x(0)(1), x(0)(2),…, x(0)(k)) (k=1,2,…,n) collected from a wind field within the period from 0 to t is obtained; the group of data is used to predict a predicted output power value (I) in the moment t+1 via a prediction method, and form a prediction sequence (II); the prediction sequence is subtracted from practical power data X(0)=(x(0)(2), x(0)(3),…., x(0)(k)) to obtain a residual sequence ε(0)=(ε(0)(2), ε(0)(3),…, ε(0)(k)); and the residual sequence is calculated by using the prediction method, so as to obtain a residual prediction value (III) in the moment t+1, and (III) and (I) are added to obtain the predicted output power value of the wind field in the moment t+1. Accordingly, collected data is continuously updated, and new prediction data is continuously obtained by using the prediction method. Potential value of the date is dug as possible under the condition that there are only a few of data samples, and the short-period prediction precision of the output power of the wind filed is improved.