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1. (WO2018082132) SHORT-PERIOD PREDICTION METHOD FOR OUTPUT POWER OF ENERGY SYSTEM

Pub. No.:    WO/2018/082132    International Application No.:    PCT/CN2016/106883
Publication Date: Sat May 12 01:59:59 CEST 2018 International Filing Date: Thu Nov 24 00:59:59 CET 2016
IPC: G06Q 10/04
G06Q 50/06
Applicants: JIANGNAN UNIVERSITY
江南大学
Inventors: WU, Dinghui
吴定会
GAO, Cong
高聪
JI, Zhicheng
纪志成
PAN, Tinglong
潘庭龙
SHEN, Yanxia
沈艳霞
ZHAO, Zhipu
赵芝璞
LIU, Wen
刘稳
ZHENG, Yang
郑洋
HUANG, Xu
黄旭
YANG, Deliang
杨德亮
Title: SHORT-PERIOD PREDICTION METHOD FOR OUTPUT POWER OF ENERGY SYSTEM
Abstract:
A short-period prediction method for output power of an energy system. N pieces of power data X(0)=(x(0)(1), x(0)(2),…, x(0)(k)) (k=1,2,…,n) collected from a wind field within the period from 0 to t is obtained; the group of data is used to predict a predicted output power value (I) in the moment t+1 via a prediction method, and form a prediction sequence (II); the prediction sequence is subtracted from practical power data X(0)=(x(0)(2), x(0)(3),…., x(0)(k)) to obtain a residual sequence ε(0)=(ε(0)(2), ε(0)(3),…, ε(0)(k)); and the residual sequence is calculated by using the prediction method, so as to obtain a residual prediction value (III) in the moment t+1, and (III) and (I) are added to obtain the predicted output power value of the wind field in the moment t+1. Accordingly, collected data is continuously updated, and new prediction data is continuously obtained by using the prediction method. Potential value of the date is dug as possible under the condition that there are only a few of data samples, and the short-period prediction precision of the output power of the wind filed is improved.