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1. (WO2018065045) METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING ENERGY GENERATION BASED ON SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING

Pub. No.:    WO/2018/065045    International Application No.:    PCT/EP2016/073768
Publication Date: Fri Apr 13 01:59:59 CEST 2018 International Filing Date: Thu Oct 06 01:59:59 CEST 2016
IPC: G05B 17/02
G06N 3/04
Applicants: TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
Inventors: BOREAN, Claudio
GRASSO, Ennio
Title: METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING ENERGY GENERATION BASED ON SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING
Abstract:
A method (300) is proposed for estimating energy generated by a solar system (130) in a predetermined geographic area. The method (300) comprises, at each predetermined time instant: - retrieving (305) measured values of at least one weather parameter and of solar irradiance in respect of said predetermined geographic area, said measured values being related to a first time slot before said predetermined time instant; - performing (315) an auto-regression analysis of the measured values; - estimating (315), based on said auto-regression analysis, a relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance; - retrieving (325) forecasted values of said at least one weather parameter in respect of said predetermined geographic area, said forecasted values being forecasted for a second time slot after said predetermined time instant; - performing (330) a regression analysis of said relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance and of said forecasted values; - forecasting (330) a solar irradiance in said second time slot based on said regression analysis, and - estimating energy generated by the solar system (130) in said second time slot according to the forecasted solar irradiance and at least one solar system parameter.