3. WO2013071414 - SYSTEM, METHOD AND COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR FORECASTING ENERGY PRICE

Publication Number WO/2013/071414

Publication Date 23.05.2013

International Application No. PCT/CA2012/001056

International Filing Date 14.11.2012

IPC

G06Q 10/04 2012.1

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
Q	INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10	Administration; Management
04	Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"

G06Q 50/06 2012.1

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
Q	INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
50	Information and communication technology specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
06	Energy or water supply

G06Q 10/04 2012.1

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
Q	INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10	Administration; Management
04	Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"

G06Q 50/06 2012.1

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
Q	INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
50	Information and communication technology specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
06	Energy or water supply

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CPC

G06Q 10/04

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10	Administration; Management
04	Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"

G06Q 30/0202

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
30	Commerce, e.g. shopping or e-commerce
02	Marketing, e.g. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards; Price estimation or determination
0202	Market predictions or demand forecasting

G06Q 30/0206

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
30	Commerce, e.g. shopping or e-commerce
02	Marketing, e.g. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards; Price estimation or determination
0202	Market predictions or demand forecasting
0206	Price or cost determination based on market factors

G06Q 50/06

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
50	Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
06	Electricity, gas or water supply

G06Q 10/04

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10	Administration; Management
04	Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"

G06Q 30/0202

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
30	Commerce, e.g. shopping or e-commerce
02	Marketing, e.g. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards; Price estimation or determination
0202	Market predictions or demand forecasting

G06Q 30/0206

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
30	Commerce, e.g. shopping or e-commerce
02	Marketing, e.g. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards; Price estimation or determination
0202	Market predictions or demand forecasting
0206	Price or cost determination based on market factors

G06Q 50/06

G	PHYSICS
06	COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
Q	DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
50	Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
06	Electricity, gas or water supply

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Applicants

• ENERGENT INCORPORATED [CA]/[CA]

Inventors

• ELLIS, Gordon D.
• CANIZARES, Claudio Adrian
• BHATTACHARYA, Kankar
• VACCARO, Alfredo
• EL-FOULY, Tarek, Hussein, Mostafa

Agents

• NAHM, Tai W.

Priority Data

61/559,295

14.11.2011

US

Publication Language English (en)

Filing Language English (en)

Designated States

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AE, AG, AL, AM, AO, AT, AU, AZ, BA, BB, BG, BH, BN, BR, BW, BY, BZ, CA, CH, CL, CN, CO, CR, CU, CZ, DE, DK, DM, DO, DZ, EC, EE, EG, ES, FI, GB, GD, GE, GH, GM, GT, HN, HR, HU, ID, IL, IN, IS, JP, KE, KG, KM, KN, KP, KR, KZ, LA, LC, LK, LR, LS, LT, LU, LY, MA, MD, ME, MG, MK, MN, MW, MX, MY, MZ, NA, NG, NI, NO, NZ, OM, PA, PE, PG, PH, PL, PT, QA, RO, RS, RU, RW, SC, SD, SE, SG, SK, SL, SM, ST, SV, SY, TH, TJ, TM, TN, TR, TT, TZ, UA, UG, US, UZ, VC, VN, ZA, ZM, ZW
African Regional Intellectual Property Organization (ARIPO) (BW, GH, GM, KE, LR, LS, MW, MZ, NA, RW, SD, SL, SZ, TZ, UG, ZM, ZW)
Eurasian Patent Organization (AM, AZ, BY, KG, KZ, RU, TJ, TM)
European Patent Office (AL, AT, BE, BG, CH, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, HR, HU, IE, IS, IT, LT, LU, LV, MC, MK, MT, NL, NO, PL, PT, RO, RS, SE, SI, SK, SM, TR)
African Intellectual Property Organization (BF, BJ, CF, CG, CI, CM, GA, GN, GQ, GW, ML, MR, NE, SN, TD, TG)

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Title

(EN) SYSTEM, METHOD AND COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR FORECASTING ENERGY PRICE

(FR) SYSTÈME, PROCÉDÉ ET PROGRAMME D'ORDINATEUR DE PRÉVISION DE PRIX DE L'ÉNERGIE

Abstract

(EN) A system, method and computer program for forecasting energy price is provided that includes an adaptive hybrid forecasting engine. The adaptive hybrid forecasting engine is operable to generate an energy price forecast based on both a prediction utility and a correction utility. The prediction utility may implement a linear modeling algorithm for predicting energy price based on historical data. The linear modeling algorithm may be a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model, for example, which includes both a regular ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA model. The correction utility may implement an adaptive dynamic correction algorithm that is operable to adapt the energy price forecast based on current or near-current conditions. The adaptive dynamic correction algorithm may be a LL (lazy learning) algorithm.

(FR) Un système, un procédé et un programme d'ordinateur pour prévoir le prix de l'énergie comprennent un moteur de prévision hybride adaptatif. Le moteur de prévision hybride adaptatif peut être utilisé pour générer un prix de l'énergie prévu à la fois sur la base d'un utilitaire de prédiction et d'un utilitaire de correction. L'utilitaire de prédiction peut mettre en oeuvre un algorithme de modélisation linéaire pour prédire le prix de l'énergie sur la base de données d'historique. L'algorithme de modélisation linéaire peut être un modèle ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) saisonnier multiplicatif, par exemple, qui comprend à la fois un modèle ARIMA régulier et un modèle ARIMA saisonnier. L'utilitaire de correction peut mettre en oeuvre un algorithme de correction dynamique adaptatif qui peut être utilisé pour adapter le prix de l'énergie prévu sur la base des conditions actuelles ou presque actuelles. L'algorithme de correction dynamique adaptatif peut être un algorithme LL (apprentissage paresseux).

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