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1. WO2004111770 - SYSTEMS, METHODS AND COMPUTER PROGRAM PRODUCTS FOR MODELING UNCERTAIN FUTURE BENEFITS

Publication Number WO/2004/111770
Publication Date 23.12.2004
International Application No. PCT/US2004/017258
International Filing Date 01.06.2004
IPC
G06Q 40/00 2006.1
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
40Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
CPC
G06Q 10/06
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10Administration; Management
06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
G06Q 10/087
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
10Administration; Management
08Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading, distribution or shipping; Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
087Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement, balancing against orders
G06Q 40/00
GPHYSICS
06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
40Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
Applicants
  • THE BOEING COMPANY [US]/[US]
Inventors
  • MATHEWS, Scott, H.
  • DATAR, Vinay, T.
  • FORGIE, Christopher, A.
Agents
  • GALBRAITH, Ann, K.
Priority Data
10/453,39603.06.2003US
Publication Language English (en)
Filing Language English (EN)
Designated States
Title
(EN) SYSTEMS, METHODS AND COMPUTER PROGRAM PRODUCTS FOR MODELING UNCERTAIN FUTURE BENEFITS
(FR) SYSTEMES, PROCEDES, ET PRODUITS DE PROGRAMME INFORMATIQUE DESTINES A LA MODELISATION DE BENEFICES FUTURS INCERTAINS
Abstract
(EN) Systems, methods and computer program products are provided for modeling future benefits. According to the method, modeling future benefits begins by defining a growth rate for the good for each time segment of a period of time, where the period of time includes a plurality of time segments. An uncertainty for the good is then determined for each time segment. Next, a benefit distribution is determined at an end of each time segment based upon the growth rate and uncertainty for the respective time segment. Finally, a benefit value is selected at the end of each time segment by randomly selecting each benefit value based upon a respective benefit distribution to thereby model future benefits over the period of time. The method therefore allows the growth rate and/or the uncertainty to very between time segments. The method can also account for contingencies at the end of previous time segments.
(FR) L'invention concerne des systèmes, des procédés, et des produits de programme informatique destinés à la modélisation de bénéfices futurs. Selon ledit procédé, la modélisation de bénéfices futurs commence par la définition d'un taux de croissance du produit pour chaque segment de temps d'une période de temps comportant plusieurs segments de temps. Un niveau d'incertitude du produit est ensuite déterminé pour chaque segment de temps. Une distribution de bénéfices est alors déterminée à la fin de chaque segment de temps sur la base de taux de croissance et du niveau d'incertitude du segment de temps respectif. Finalement, une valeur de bénéfices est sélectionnée à la fin de chaque segment de temps par sélection aléatoire de chaque valeur de bénéfices sur la base d'une distribution de bénéfices respective, de manière à modéliser des bénéfices futurs sur la période de temps. Par conséquent, ledit procédé autorise des variations du taux de croissance et/ou du niveau d'incertitude entre des segments de temps. Ledit procédé permet également de tenir compte de faux frais à la fin du segment de temps précédent.
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