(EN) Provided is a system (10) for determining a probability of a COPD exacerbation in a subject. The system comprises a first inhaler (100) for delivering a rescue medicament to the subject. The rescue medicament may be suitable for treating the subject's acute respiratory disease, for example by effecting rapid dilation of the bronchi and bronchioles upon inhalation of the medicament. The first inhaler has a use-detection system (12B) configured to determine a rescue inhalation performed by the subject using the first inhaler. The system optionally includes a second inhaler for delivering a maintenance medicament to the subject during a routine inhalation. A sensor system (12A) is configured to measure a parameter relating to airflow during the rescue inhalation and/or during the routine inhalation, when the second inhaler is included in the system. The system further comprises a processor (14) configured to determine a number of times of the rescue inhalation during a first time period, and receive the parameter measured for at least some of the rescue and/or routine inhalation. The processor then determines, using a weighted model, the probability of the COPD exacerbation based on the number of times of rescue inhalation and the parameters. The model is weighted such that the parameters are more significant in the probability determination than the number of times of rescue inhalation. Further provided is a method for determining the probability of a COPD exacerbation in a subject, which method employs the weighted model.
(ZH) 提供了一种用于测定受试者的COPD恶化概率的系统(10)。系统包括用于向受试者递送抢救药剂的第一吸入器(100)。所述抢救药剂可适用于治疗受试者的急性呼吸道疾病，例如通过在所述药剂吸入后实现支气管和细支气管快速扩张来治疗。第一吸入器具有使用检测系统(12B)，所述使用检测系统配置成测定受试者使用第一吸入器进行的抢救吸入。系统可选地包含用于在常规吸入期间向受试者递送维持药剂的第二吸入器。传感器系统(12A)配置成测量与抢救吸入期间和/或当系统包含第二吸入器时进行常规吸入期间的气流相关的参数。系统进一步包括处理器(14)，所述处理器配置成测定在第一时间段期间发生抢救吸入的次数，并接收针对至少一些抢救和/或常规吸入所测量的参数。处理器然后使用加权模型基于抢救吸入次数和参数测定COPD恶化概率。对模型赋予权重，使得参数在概率测定时的意义大于抢救吸入次数。进一步提供了一种用于测定受试者的COPD恶化概率的方法，所述方法采用加权模型。
