(EN) Provided is a system (10) for determining a probability of a CORD exacerbation in a subject. The system comprises a first inhaler (100) for delivering a rescue medicament to the subject. The rescue medicament may be suitable for treating the subject's acute respiratory disease, for example by effecting rapid dilation of the bronchi and bronchioles upon inhalation of the medicament. The first inhaler has a use-detection system (12B) configured to determine a rescue inhalation performed by the subject using the first inhaler. The system optionally includes a second inhaler for delivering a maintenance medicament to the subject during a routine inhalation. A sensor system (12A) is configured to measure a parameter relating to airflow during the rescue inhalation and/or during the routine inhalation, when the second inhaler is included in the system. The system further comprises a processor (14) configured to determine a number of the rescue inhalations during a first time period, and receive the parameter measured for at least some of the rescue and/or routine inhalations. The processor then determines, using a weighted model, the probability of the CORD exacerbation based on the number of rescue inhalations and the parameters. The model is weighted such that the parameters are more significant in the probability determination than the number of rescue inhalations. Further provided is a method for determining the probability of a COPD exacerbation in a subject, which method employs the weighted model.
